Indicators Affecting the Urban Resilience with a Scenario Approach in Tehran Metropolis

Urban resilience refers to the capacity of an urban system fully recover from unforeseen calamities. This study aims assess physical indicators used measure in Tehran, political and economic capital Iran, pinpoint most significant direct indirect influences on resilience. The research process divided into two parts. environmental scanning approach (reviewing papers published sources, interviewing specialists, monitoring conferences) literature review were employed first part compile a database key information elements impacting factors over next ten years requested be identified by specialists intellectuals second part. Finally, MicMac program was analyze data after 29 variables specified Delphi. In light trace-analysis-dependence diagram, which depicts instability influential persistence their impact other variables, results demonstrate that Tehran’s is unstable condition. According results, have maximum are granularity drivers, emergency evacuation capacity, rescue security spaces (emergency, fire station, police station), impermeability, rate amendment retrofitting measures buildings each zone, building age, compatibility land uses. susceptible change include distribution status dangerous uses, quality buildings, historically vulnerable vulnerability internal external roads, improvements as well historical buildings.